Market Pulse
The numbers that move our market — what each one says, and what it means for us.
Fed funds target3.75–4.00%Raised 0.25 pt on Sept. 16
high impactSep 16Confirmed
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, in a unanimous 12–0 vote. The statement said the move will "support a timelier return" to its 2% inflation goal, so the Fed is now actively tightening to fight inflation.
DashMoney gets tighter; expect clients to question discretionary IT projects and to stretch payment terms.
10-year Treasury yield5.17%Close, Sept. 25
medium impactSep 25Confirmed
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.17% on September 25 after touching 5.18% during the week, described as the highest since the financial crisis; the 2-year closed at 4.81%. Long rates drive the cost of business loans, lines of credit and acquisition financing.
DashBorrowing stays expensive, including credit lines to fund payroll between billing cycles and any acquisition financing.
Nonfarm payrolls · August+162KUnemployment 4.1% · next report Oct 2
medium impactSep 4Confirmed
The economy added 162,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The information industry lost 23,000 jobs, including 8,000 at computing infrastructure, data processing and web hosting providers. The September report comes out Friday, October 2.
DashHiring is steady overall, but tech-infrastructure jobs are shrinking.
Initial jobless claims197KNear historic lows
low impactSep 24Developing
New weekly jobless claims slipped to 197,000 in the report released September 24, holding close to historic lows. Few layoffs means employed people are staying put, which makes candidates harder to recruit away.
DashEmployers are holding on to people; expect longer fills and higher pay asks.
ASA Staffing Index+3.3%Staffing jobs vs. a year ago
low impactSep 22Confirmed
The American Staffing Association's weekly index was 93 for the week of September 7–13, down 1.4% on the Labor Day week but up 3.3% from a year earlier; the four-week average is up 5.8% versus 2025. New assignments fell 5.6% that week, though 42% of firms still reported gains. From August to September, staffing employment grew 0.5%, and ASA's economist says the industry "continues to hold onto gains made throughout this year."
DashSteady, not booming; useful context for client conversations.
CFOs hiring for new roles37.3%Up from 34.5% a year ago
low impactSep 24Developing
The Richmond and Atlanta Fed / Duke CFO Survey of 517 finance executives (August 17 – September 4) found 37.3% hiring for new positions, up from 34.5% a year earlier, and 57.8% able to hire replacements, up from 53.7%. Their optimism about the economy was 60.3 out of 100, down slightly from last quarter. The Richmond Fed noted that challenges are sharpest for small or financially constrained firms.
DashMid-size and large clients are the better bets this quarter.